Week 4: Day 20

Week 4: Day 20, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Day started with a pre-market spike up out of no where!

It got me excited and then I made 2 error trades in a row. But the third one was good, and it got me on the train for the ride south.

But then I kinda messed up my TPs and SLs.. so I was out with about 8 points instead of 17! I deserve a spanking here.. it would have made the week a profitable one!

So the day ends with just a $212.50 profit.

Week 4: Day 19

Week 4: Day 19, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Fantastic movement yet again, and yet again I fudged it..

Just two trades today. I was about to stop after the huge move, but there was a really nice setup for a short whilst I was doing this report..

Mistake was I wasn't focused when I was supposed to TP for 3 points. Oh well.. what a bad week!

My daily performance P/L chart seems to be doing a 50% retracement. Perhaps it'll bounce up for a breakout tomorrow..

So its -$75.00 for the day.

An Observation on Exits

I remember reading a very interesting bit in Dr. Van Tharp's book. It was in the How to Take Profits chapter, under a section called What to avoid. It starts like this:

"There is one kind of exit that is designed to get rid of losses, but it totally goes against the golden rule of trading of cut your losses short and let your profit run."

And this is what he meant when I have two take profit levels. If you look into my stats box as of today, you would see the following: -

Total profits = $862.50
TP 1 = $212.50
Which means TP2 = $650.00

Now.. the profit ratio of TP2 is way better than TP1. In fact, it is better by slightly more than 3 times. So, why would I still exit at a TP1 level? Why would I insist on doing something that is adversed to maximizing my profits? Why would I take a hit at full impact, but when I take my best profits, I take it with just half of my initial position?

The book says it's all down to wanting to be right, it's about staying in control. When I have taken profit at TP1, I've sometimes said: "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

I think that reflects my psychological need to be right, to be safe.

So, I'm gonna skip taking profit at the first level, and I'm gonna aim higher for the larger moves!

Also, if you haven't yet tried a card game idea that I've taken from Dr. Van Tharp's book, please check it out here.

Week 4: Day 18

Week 4: Day 18, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Three losing days in a row doesn't look good, doesn't feel good!

And thats especially when I'm sprinkling a couple of errors here and there.

Anyway, I owe it to my strategy that no matter how bad it gets, it won't look like I've been hit by a train. Looking at the daily performance chart, I'm pretty much still on the up.

But today, I'm down by -$25.00.

Week 4: Day 17

Week 4: Day 13, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

One huge move up, then one huge move down. I guess it was the perfect sell setup for the big boys.

Anyway, I managed to confuse myself and made 2 error trades, while I missed all the profitable ones.. Gonna have to do some work to get my head in sync again for tomorrow.

Loss for the day -$300.00

Week 4: Day 16

Week 4: Day 16, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

A very choppy day. And the signals just didnt work out. One of those unenthusiastic Mondays, which is how I am feeling right now.

There are days when I just feel confused and hopeful, and in when I start those days with a losing trade, I don't usually come out looking very smart.. today was one of those days, but I've just limited myself to 2 trades, so I'm out intact. And that's good news!

As traders, we must always live to fight on those winning days! If there's the chance of just one single day which might cause you to lose your pants, thats just impending disaster waiting to happen. Plan and manage so that you don't ever let that chance occur for you!

So, the loss for the day = -$150.00

Week 3: Day 15

Week 3: Day 15, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

The market opened to a very choppy tight range in anticipation of news. I made 3 losing trades here. Including an error on a missed reversal (again).

The market then burst into a great long trend on positive housing data. Prices shot up about 7 points before I got in on a pullback. I took profit on very nice spots (see screenshot), to make a total of 11 points ($550.00) on just this one trade.

So, I finish the week on a positive note. Up $250.00 for the day.

Week 3: Day 14

Week 3: Day 14, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Another trending day for longs. Prices just took off after a little pullback on the opening bell.

I took a short, but when I saw the reversal signal, my brain just froze and my finger just wouldnt click the "reverse" button. Looks like I have yet to overcome this issue which I had highlighted just days back.

And one mistake led to 2 other losers.. As part of my trading rules, 3 losers is all I can take in a day, so I stopped trading right after that last one.

Most of yesterday's gains were wiped out.

Total loss for today is $325.00

Week 3: Day 13

Week 3: Day 13, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Another great trading day!

Right after this screenshot was taken, the market just shot up by another 4 points! If only I was still on the trade.. I kinda discounted my 2nd TP by 2 points. Anyway, it doesn't matter. I wouldn't have known what the market would have done.

More of these days would convince me to have a more aggressive take profit rules.

Today execution was perfect, and it was all good. I almost got stopped out by just 1 tick before it launched upwards, gives me confidence that my SL rules needs no adjustments whatsoever.

So, that's $375.00 profit for the day.

Week 3: Day 12

Week 3: Day 12, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

I'm done just after the 1st hour, but on a losing balance today.

Price movement was very choppy when the market opened. It seems like it was just winding up from yesterday's huge sell and prices met strong support as well.

All my entries and stops were off by 1 tick or so, particularly on my 2nd trade (#27). Hate it when that happens, but it does happen from time to time.

So, I'm down by $175.00 today, matching the largest losing streak so far.

Week 3: Day 11

Week 3: Day 11, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Nice explosive start to the day, but I missed the big one yet again!

Otherwise, I'd be up by 8 points for the day.. all explained in the chart.

Looks like I'm still not focused enough on pulling the trigger. This was exactly the same thing as trade #21 on Friday. Gotta be on the tip of my toes for these 10 seconds reversal signals..

No point sulking on it, at least I didn't suffer massive losses like I did in the previous strategy employed.

Ended the day with just $25.00 profit.

Week 2: Summary

Time flies!

I am already 20% into my 10 week timeline. Basically, after Week 1, I told myself I would implement these things:

1. Pull the trigger everytime I see a signal.
2. Stop trading once a big move occurs (about 7-10 point move), or if I have made the equivalent for the day.

I think I have improved on those things, but it could definitely have been better (refer to my missed trade on Friday! Ouch..)

Here are some stats I've pulled out off this week's trade logs:

• Largest losing streak = $175.00
• Largest winning streak = $625.00
• Largest loser = $100.00
• Largest winner = $350.00
• Number of trades made = 7
• Weekly P/L = +$862.50

I think the numbers reflect that its a strategy with low risk for reasonable returns, which is what I have intended it to be. Now to see if I can increase the my expectancy for next week.

For next week, there are two things that I'd immediately like to improve on:

1. Pulling the trigger. I need to find it in me to be ruthless.
2. Profit taking. It is possible that I can squeeze out more from my two lots.

I have to quickly improve and keep the numbers coming in, otherwise, I won't hit my target on time. All in all, Week 2 was a good one for me.

Have a good weekend!

Week 2: Day 10

Week 2: Day 10, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

What an explosive market movement!

It's funny.. I trade everyday just to wait for moves like this, and the day that I say pass to a signal, is the day I would have made 16.5 points on a trade.. I would have doubled my weekly profit with just this one trade!

I learnt from Dr. Van Tharp's book that missing a huge move is more painful than getting my stop loss hit. He's spot on with that. I'm having a donkey face moment right now...

Anyway, that's now my mantra for pulling the trigger. May it be the time I'll learn this lesson.

For me that's the big move for the day. It has occured, and I wasn't on it. So I'm done.

Total Profits for Week 2 = $862.50

That's a 265% improvement over last week's performance. I guess that would have to be my consolation.

Week 2: Day 9

Week 2: Day 9, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Today was just exciting!

Prices moved so fast after the opening bell, I was just left in a daze when the stop on my 1st trade of the day was hit. Cause immediately after that (5 seconds?) I had a short signal and I totally missed it!

That was my big move for the day, and it wouldn't make sense to chase my daily profit target. In my opinion, the risk-return just isn't worth it when you might get whipsawed all over the place. And I would probably just be getting on low return trades.

Anyway, I caught a good long for my 2nd trade, and made 2.5 + 4.5 for a total of 7 points on it.

That's $275.00 added to the account.

Week 2: Day 8

Week 2: Day 8, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

WOW!

It's just 40 minutes past the opening bell, and the market really caught me by surprised with a huge 13 point rally. At least I was on the right side of this surprise, and was done for the day just after 15 minutes. If only every day was like this!

It was a nice long that I caught on a small pullback. It's my big move of the day, so I'm finished trading.

That's $350.00 added to my account balance.

Week 2: Day 7

Week 2: Day 7, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Premarket movement was very bearish. And after the negative productivity report, prices took a spike up before tumbling down, with a short pause after opening bell.

That's when I got on my short, at a very neat price.

Its my only trade. And for me that's the big one for the day, so I'm calling it a night.

With 5.5 points in the bag, I'm up by $275.00!

This is how trading should be.

Week 2: Day 6

Week 2: Day 6, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

I think today was a great trading day.

Or perhaps it could have been one for me. I'm just getting around to improving my profit taking and breakeven adjustments.

And I've also realised that if I just stopped for the day everytime a big move occurs for me, or when the sum of all trades would equal one, I should actually stop trading for the day and not hand back thosoe profits to the market!

Just going through my logs, if I did that every single day since last week, I'd be up by about double by now. So, that's going to be implemented here as well.

I am retiring early tonight. Have some personal things to handle tomorrow morning.

Made 2 unbelievable error trades. I was oblivious to the trend change.

So, it was a net loss for the day -$37.50. Expectancy numbers took a plunge as well.

Hopefully I will stomp out all these errors soon!

Week 1: Day 5

Week 1: Day 5, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

Positive jobs report had the market rocket up by 22 points making its yearly high!

The higher prices went, the more worried I was about getting entry signals around what I saw as ceiling zones. Which shouldn't have been a factor to me executing my trades in the first place.

The consequence was missing a 7 pointer trade. I shouldn't doubt the signals, and just execute them!

Entering a position is the least important element in a successful trading plan, yet it's one of the things that worries me most. I should just let my strategy's expectancy unfold in its natural way and take every single signal that comes.

In fact, that is my summary of Week 1! I missed out on over $1,000 worth of profits over the week for not entering on every signal. Lesson be learnt here.

Anyway, I ended up with 2 entries before the market closed.

Today's result = -$25.00

Week 1: Day 4

Week 1: Day 4, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

The S&P 500 retreated before tomorrow's unemployment rate news. Too bad I didn't have any signals to get on this one.

I can't expect to catch all the big moves all the time. That would simply be unrealistic. I'd be happy if I would just catch 30% of those!

Anyway, I waited and waited for my setup, and ended up with only 1 trade for today. I would have loved to make a little more on it, but it just wasn't to be.

Tomorrow morning, I have some personal stuff to handle, so I called it an early night.

Up by $212.50 today!

This is more like the kind of progress I am expecting.

Week 1: Day 3

Week 1: Day 3, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

A pretty uneventful trading day for me despite the huge market move right after opening bell.

Anyway, just 1 winner and 2 losers, so we're up just $12.50.

Week 1: Day 2

Week 1: Day 2, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

The S&P finishes at day high of 1005.00 points!

Wow! The bulls rule despite many thinking the early run up was just a rally in a bear market. However, I was long baised for much of the day.

I'd say this was a a good day for my new strategy, but I just didn't do my job right. Made an error trade yet again.. still getting myself used to executing the strategy.

But the worst part was missing the big runner in the last moments of the day. It was a bumper 7.5 pointer ($375)! And the reason? I was trying to save a tick and didnt get my order filled!

I have heard from many gurus and read from many good books that the entry should be the least of my concerns. Yet, here I am, guilty as charged again for trying to beat my system's entry prices. If I'd keep doing it, in the long run my actual performance will not live up to the expectancy numbers calculated in my backtests. And that wouldn't be any good.

Moving forward, I'll have this be my last of such mistakes.

So, we're up for the day with just $37.50.

Try This Card Game!

I got this game idea by recently reading the book called Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Dr. Van K Tharp (in my Great Stuff list). I thought it was an interesting bit, and would be fun to really experience what the author was saying. I learnt something profound and real by playing. I thought you might want to try it too!

Here's what you need to get started:

1. A friend / partner
2. A deck of cards (randomly pick 6 black cards and 4 red cards)
   
3. A calculator (the bigger the better)
   
4. A watch (to time yourselves, if needed)
   

So, this game is a "Who Can Make The Most Profit!" competition between you and your friend. And the odds of winning is 60%!

Setup:

1. Take turns being "The Player" and "The Dealer"
2. You each get to play for 10 minutes per turn (or 100 bets if you prefer)
   
3. The Player starts every turn with fresh money! So punch a cool $100 it into that calculator
   

How to Play:

1. The Dealer starts by shuffling/jumbling/spreading out the 10 cards
2. The Player then calls out the amount he/she wants to bet
3. The Player then picks a card
4. If a black card is picked, the bet amount is won
5. If a red card is picked, the bet amount is lost
6. The gain or loss is then added/subtracted on the calculator
7. Repeat from step 1 until 10 minutes or 100 bets are up, or if you go bankrupt!
   

Then you switch roles to play after that. Now go ahead and try it!

I did a best of 3 and I won! ;D Haha..

I'd love to hear how it went for you.

Week 1: Day 1

Week 1: Day 1, originally uploaded by 10k10weeks.

So much for sleeping on time!

As the US economy recovers, the market was optimistic and cautious at the same time. So, we had a very choppy day as the S&P took a peek over the 1,000 level for the first time since November last year.

I took all the signals generated by my new strategy today, plus one error trade error that shouldn't have been there.

The day started well and I was up over $287.50, until I took that one error trade and then made a loss.

Anyway, I'm happy to end the day positive.

We're up by just $37.50!